I do understand that for some people and businesses the pandemic has brought unbelievable suffering and loss of life. There can be nothing worse.

I am aware, too, that unemployment and business insolvencies are almost certain to rise this year as the lagged effects of the recession have an impact. The extension of restrictions needed to curb the virus will cause additional damage. 30% of UK businesses say they have less than three months of cash reserves left, rising to over 50% among restaurants and hotels.

However you cut it the economic outlook is uncertain and full of risks. But there are upsides; it is not all gloom and doom, particularly for businesses that are agile and flexible.

Low interest rates, buoyant assets prices and government support schemes have bolstered private sector balance sheets as government borrowing, and quantitative easing, has soared. Corporate cash holdings and consumer savings rates hit record levels last year. If the vaccine can stop the virus pent-up demand should drive another snap back in activity.

Unemployment rates in Europe and the US, for instance, are well below levels reached in the far milder recession of 2008–09. The downturn is hitting consumer services, such as retail and hospitality, hard, but the capital-intensive manufacturing sector has bounced back and online businesses are flourishing.

The threats to the recovery are real. But in some ways the pandemic is likely to accelerate productivity enhancing change. The downturn has led to rapid adjustment as organisations adapt to consuming, interacting and working at a distance. Home working, virtual GP consultations and contactless payments have soared. This is partly about using technology, much of it well-established, but at least as much about changing established habits, structures and practices.

Much of the change is likely to outlast the pandemic. The levels of home working are set to rise five-fold relative to pre-crisis levels, a shift that would constitute a revolution in the organisation of work. The gains from applying technology, and new ways of operating in sectors where productivity has tended to lag, such as education, medicine and retail, could be significant.

The pandemic seems likely to be a catalyst for lasting change in business and in society. Do you have a post-crisis action plan for how your business will capitalise from these changes?

Noel Guilford