Hi

Every so often, a shift happens that completely changes the economics of marketing.

We saw it with Google Ads in the early 2000s and again when Facebook advertising first arrived. Those who moved fast enjoyed under-priced attention and spectacular returns.

It’s happening again.

And this time, the catalyst is artificial intelligence — specifically, the rise of large language models (LLMs) like ChatGPT.

Recently Daniel Priestley wrote that when OpenAI starts to take advertisements inside ChatGPT, it will do so at a very low price point — so low that Google and Meta (Facebook/Instagram) will be forced to follow suit and drop their prices too.

It’s a bold claim, but I think he’s right. And if he is, small businesses could be about to enjoy the most cost-effective period for online advertising in years.

Why ChatGPT Changes the Game

Let’s start with a simple fact: ChatGPT already attracts hundreds of millions of users every week. It has one billion subscribers 80% of whom are on the free version. That’s a vast audience — one that increasingly uses ChatGPT instead of Google to find answers, recommendations, and ideas.

If OpenAI introduces advertising, even at an experimental level, it instantly becomes the third major ad platform alongside Google and Meta. And because it’s new, it will need to attract advertisers with low prices and high performance.

That’s where the opportunity lies. When a new advertising channel opens, there’s always a window where prices are low, returns are high, and competition is light. Think back to the early days of Google AdWords — 5p clicks for buyers with strong intent. Or Facebook Ads when £50 could reach thousands of people precisely matched to your ideal client.

If ChatGPT Ads launch in 2026 as predicted, we may see a repeat of that pattern.

How Advertising in AI Actually Works

Before we imagine cheap ads raining from the sky, let’s look at what “advertising on ChatGPT” really means.

LLMs like ChatGPT, Bing Chat, or Google’s Gemini answer your questions directly. So rather than a page of search results, you get a conversation — context-aware, intelligent, and increasingly commercial.

To monetise this, developers are experimenting with “native ads” inside chat responses.Imagine asking ChatGPT for the best noise-cancelling headphones under £200 and seeing one sponsored recommendation clearly labelled with a price and “Shop now” link.

Microsoft is already testing this in Bing Chat. Google is trialling “sponsored shopping” results in its AI search experience. And OpenAI has quietly been hiring ad specialists from Meta and other platforms to design similar formats — including sponsored answers, product carousels, and even rewarded ads where you watch a clip to get a premium feature unlocked.

In short: AI chat platforms are preparing to become ad-supported ecosystems.

Why It Matters (and Why It’s Controversial)

The case for AI advertising is strong. When someone asks an AI tool to “find me a good CRM for a business with 10 staff”, their intent is crystal clear. Show them a relevant product at that moment and they’re much more likely to buy. Early tests show higher click-through rates and faster conversions than traditional keyword ads.

For small businesses, that means potentially better leads for less money. But there’s also a risk.

Many users like ChatGPT because it feels neutral and ad-free. Start stuffing ads into answers and that trust could erode quickly. Sam Altman, OpenAI’s CEO, once said he viewed advertising as a “last resort” business model because it can distort results.

So expect the big AI platforms to move carefully — a few discreet, clearly labelled ads at first, with a lot of user testing. But make no mistake: advertising is coming. The economics are too powerful to ignore.

What Happens Next — The Likely Chain Reaction

Here’s what I expect over the next 12–24 months:

• OpenAI introduces ChatGPT Ads – likely in 2026. Pricing will start very low to attract early adopters.
• Google and Meta respond – they can’t afford to lose spend, so they reduce CPCs, offer bonuses, or bundle AI-enhanced placements at lower rates.
• Advertisers shift budgets – especially small businesses looking for cheaper leads.
• Ad costs fall across the board – creating a short-term “golden era” of affordable advertising.
• Competition then returns – prices rise again once everyone piles in and the market stabilises.

That means a potential 12–24-month window of cheaper, higher-return advertising — if you’re ready to move quickly.

For Google and Meta, it’ll be a wake-up call. Google’s own internal memos already acknowledge that AI chatbots are stealing search traffic. Analysts estimate ChatGPT now handles up to 15–20% of Google’s daily query volume. That’s an enormous threat to a company whose profits depend on selling search ads.

Expect them to defend that territory aggressively — including price cuts.
For advertisers, that’s good news.

How to Prepare as a Small Business

If Priestley’s prediction is right — and the research suggests it is — then small businesses should prepare now. Here’s what to do:

1. Watch your metrics

Keep a close eye on your cost-per-click (CPC), cost-per-thousand impressions (CPM), and cost-per-acquisition (CPA). If you notice them starting to fall in 2025–26, you’ll know the shift has begun.

2. Budget for expansion

When ad costs drop, lean in. Increase spend while the ROI is high. Those who scale up early will acquire customers more cheaply and build market share before prices normalise again.

3. Test new channels early

When ChatGPT or Bing introduce self-serve ad options, get in immediately. Even a small pilot campaign will teach you how conversational ads perform for your business. The first movers will get the best returns.

4. Optimise for AI discovery

Even before paid ads arrive, make sure your content is AI-friendly.
That means clear website copy, structured data, FAQs, and up-to-date information. Chatbots pull answers from well-structured sources — make sure you’re one of them.

5. Keep perspective

Enjoy the lower prices, but don’t become dependent on them. As with Google and Facebook before, once everyone floods in, prices will rise. Use the cheap period to strengthen your brand, improve your funnel, and build your list so you’re less reliant on paid ads later.

The Bigger Picture

The duopoly of Google and Meta is ending. We’re moving into a triopoly — Google, Meta, and OpenAI — with others like Microsoft and Perplexity AI close behind.

That competition will be healthy. It should make ads more affordable, innovation faster, and relevance better for users. But it will also change the nature of marketing.

Instead of optimising for search engines or social feeds, we’ll soon be optimising for AI conversations.

The opportunity is clear: for a period, attention will be under-priced again. Those who recognise it and act decisively will benefit disproportionately.

As small business owners, we’ve often been squeezed by rising ad costs. If the next 12–24 months really do bring a price correction, this is our chance to rebalance — to reach more people for less, test new creative approaches, and use technology to level the playing field.

If you ask me whether Daniel Priestley is right, I’d say: Yes, absolutely.

OpenAI has every reason to enter the ad market. When it does, it’ll undercut the incumbents to gain share. Google and Meta will retaliate. And for a while, ads will be cheaper than they’ve been in years.

So, keep your powder dry but stay alert.

When the door opens — and it will — make sure you’re ready to walk through it.

Because while others are debating whether ChatGPT Ads will work, the early adopters will be quietly buying attention at a discount and building stronger businesses.

That’s the kind of opportunity you don’t see very often.

To your success

Noel Guilford