Hi

After charting the course of the “250-Year Boom” and the vulnerabilities of an “Empire Built on Debt,” in last week’s Sunday Supplement we face the question: is it too late for the United Kingdom to change direction?

The answer is no if action is taken urgently - but the window is narrowing. Avoiding managed decline requires immediate, decisive action. Government must lead with a new national strategy, but individuals also need to build their own resilience. 

This is a two-fronted plan: one for the nation, one for its citizens. In this article I consider what the state must do...and importantly what individuals can do if the state fails to act.

A National Roadmap for Renewal

The UK’s problems are structural. Fixing them will require courage, honesty, and political consensus not seen for decades. A ten-year strategy is needed, working on four fronts.

1. A Fiscal Reset: Reforming the State 

We cannot continue to borrow endlessly to fund a state that is growing faster than the economy. A fiscal reset is unavoidable.

• Healthcare and Pensions: The NHS and state pension consume the largest share of public spending. A national, cross-party commission must create a sustainable funding model—potentially combining state provision, social insurance, and private options. The pension age will have to rise in line with life expectancy. This is unavoidable.
• Tax Reform: Shift the tax burden away from labour and business profits and towards unearned wealth and land value. Simplification, competitive corporation tax, and a modern Land Value Tax could encourage productive investment and end speculative land banking.
• Welfare That Works: The safety net should protect, but also empower. More focus is needed on moving people into work—through training, apprenticeships, and mental health support—rather than tolerating long-term dependency.

2. An Industrial Renaissance: Betting on Brains 

We cannot compete by reliving past glories. The future lies in high-value, knowledge-led industries.

• “Crown Jewel” Sectors: The UK should focus R&D investment on three to five sectors where we can be world leaders. The most likely are Life Sciences, Artificial Intelligence, Fintech, Quantum Computing, and Advanced Green Technology. These must become national priorities, not just talking points.
• Energy Independence: A ten-year mission to build Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) and massively expand renewables would reduce costs, increase security, and create a competitive edge. Without cheap, reliable energy, no industrial strategy can succeed.
• Infrastructure Backbone: Alongside energy, we need digital and transport infrastructure fit for purpose. Fast fibre everywhere, 5G that works, and transport systems that connect rather than divide.

3. A Skills Revolution: From Degrees to Competence 🛠️

A competitive economy needs a competitive workforce. The British system—with its overreliance on traditional degrees and neglect of technical training—is unfit for the future.

• Vocational Excellence: Germany’s Fraunhofer Institutes and dual-education model are a clear blueprint. We should build a new generation of elite technical colleges, working directly with our “Crown Jewel” industries. Apprenticeships must be prestigious and mainstream, not second choice.
• Lifelong Learning: Work no longer means one career for life. A National Skills Fund could provide credits for training and re-skilling at every stage of working life, helping people stay employable and productive.
• Rebalance Higher Education: Universities remain vital, but more of their effort must shift to STEM and applied research rather than overproducing generalist degrees with weak employment outcomes.

4. A Pragmatic Global Britain 

Post-Brexit, the UK must stop defining itself by ideology and start acting with hard-headed pragmatism.

• Repair EU Relations: We need a new, closer customs and regulatory agreement with Europe. Not as a political gesture, but because it is essential for trade and business confidence.
• Look Outward: At the same time, the UK must aggressively pursue trade deals with fast-growing economies in the Indo-Pacific and Africa, not just rely on the “old allies.”
• Diplomacy as Strategy: Soft power matters. Britain still has strengths—culture, education, language, and financial services—that can be leveraged if combined with credibility abroad.

The Individual’s Guide to Personal Resilience

While government works on renewal, citizens cannot simply wait. Every household should prepare for a more volatile future.

1. Fortify Your Finances 

• Diversify Investments: Don’t leave your savings tied to the fate of sterling or the UK stock market. Use global index trackers (MSCI World, S&P 500) to spread risk.
• Hold Foreign Currency: Keep some savings in US Dollars, Swiss Francs, or Euros. This protects against a sudden sterling devaluation.
• Kill High-Interest Debt: Pay down credit cards and personal loans. Debt makes you fragile when uncertainty strikes.
• Own Tangible Assets: A modest allocation to gold or silver is insurance against financial system stress. Property with utility (land, renewable energy, or rental demand) can also provide stability.

2. Boost Your Earning Power 

• Focus on Portable Skills: Build expertise in globally in-demand areas—software development, AI, cybersecurity, renewables, specialist healthcare. These skills travel with you.
• Add a Second Income Stream: Whether freelancing or remote consulting, find a way to earn outside a single employer or the UK market.
• Practical Skills: Don’t overlook resilience skills—basic mechanics, plumbing, gardening. They reduce dependency and increase self-reliance.

3. Adjust Your Lifestyle 

• Build Community: In crisis, people matter more than cash. Strong local networks are vital.
• Self-Sufficiency: Keep a stocked pantry, first-aid kit, and essential tools. Learn how to do simple home repairs.
• Lean Living: Lower fixed costs. Flexibility is freedom. If your outgoings are low, your safety net lasts longer.

4. The Strategic Role of Pensions 

• Keep Contributing: Tax relief and employer contributions make pensions powerful wealth-builders. Don’t abandon them.
• Manage the Risks: Default UK funds leave you exposed to currency, geographic, and political risks.
• Go Global: Switch to Global Equity or S&P 500 funds inside your pension. You keep the tax advantages but decouple your retirement from the UK’s fortunes.

5. Have a Plan B 

• Second Citizenship: If you qualify, secure it. An Irish passport through ancestry is still possible for many.
• Visa Options: Research where your profession is valued. A Plan B country should be stable, safe, and economically sound.
• Global Mindset: Mobility is the ultimate hedge. Don’t dismiss it until you need it—it may be too late by then.

The UK stands at a fork. One path is renewal: hard choices now, structural reform, and investment in resilience. The other is inaction: borrowing from tomorrow to pay for today, drifting into slow decline—weak currency, fragile welfare, social unrest, and diminishing influence.

The time for decisions is now—by the state and by each of us individually. If ever there was a time for induviduals to take responsibility for their own futures this is it.

Noel Guilford